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TODAY'S PAPER
National

Services for boomers a new growth market


By JILL MAHONEY
SOCIAL TRENDS REPORTER
Monday, November 29, 2004 - Page A7

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From his desk facing a wall of mirrors, Gary Murtagh can see into a very bright future of soaring demand for his adventure tours for people aged 50-plus. After all, when the baby boomers retire, they'll be searching for new ways to fill their days.

The next decade is looking just as promising for Frank Lucchetta, a vitamin-company executive who also mulls over demographic predictions. He expects the current focus on healthy living will boost profits as boomers search out supplements and remedies to reach the ripest of old age.

And Pat Frewer, a seniors' housing consultant, is counting on Canadian boomers to live longer than any generation before them, spurring high demand for low-maintenance, well-staffed places they can call home.

"I'm in a good market; the interesting thing is the number of customers is increasing," Mr. Frewer said. "The absolute number of the elderly continues to grow. The percentage that they represent of the total population continues to grow, and the length of time that they will be consumers for the kinds of things that our company provides is actually increasing."

Baby boomers -- that demographic bulge of Canadians born between about 1947 and 1966 -- will be big business as they morph into senior citizens and exercise grey power like no generation before them. In 2016 alone, the approximately 9.5 million baby boomers will be over 50, outnumbering all other age groups.

A new report from the Vanier Institute of the Family provides a revealing look into the lives of Canadian families and, in the case of baby boomers, into the future. As has been the case since their births, the boomers will have significant implications for society, from the economy to real estate.

Consider the numbers: In 2016, the number of households where the main breadwinner is aged 55 to 64 is projected to be 51 per cent higher than 2003 levels -- and those over age 65 will spike by 41 per cent. Households in which the main earner is aged 35 to 44 are expected to drop by 7 per cent.

As people age, their needs and spending patterns change. Unless immigration levels spike, economists and demographers predict the glut of retirees will result in a shortage of workers. Crime rates will likely plunge.

Interest rates, the report forecasts, will remain low as the middle-aged and seniors finish paying off their mortgages. Demand for monster houses is expected to drop, while that for easily accessible condominiums and one-storey homes will climb.

The Vanier report projects a 38-per-cent increase in demand for annuity contracts and transfers to registered retirement income funds as it comes time for seniors to drain their RRSPs. There will also likely be a spike, of about 33 per cent, in gifts of money. "It'll be just wonderful for charities," notes Roger Sauvé, a consultant on the Vanier report.

As aging bodies begin to ache and deteriorate, spending on prescription drugs is expected to swell by 26 per cent. More money will also be spent on things like vacation homes, snow removal and cleaning services.

And as consumer demand rises in some sectors, it will slump in others. The report projects drops in spending on boats, motorcycles, tent trailers, truck rentals, child care and children's lunches.

Indeed, anything that targets seniors, or seniors-to-be, is the growth market of the future.

In 1992, when Mr. Murtagh started Eldertreks, a Toronto travel company catering to the 50-plus demographic, he sent about 50 people on trips to seven countries. The firm now takes about 2,000 travellers to 80 countries, from Tanzania to Croatia to Iceland, on every continent.

Mr. Frewer, president of Seniorhome, a Ladner, B.C., consulting company that works with developers, is working to answer increased demand with more and better housing supplies.

He sees a future where boomers, who will be more affluent than their parents, will use their money to demand comfortable accommodation -- even "wellness centres" with spas and private health services.

"I think I'll find a boomer market that is open to a wider array of services and programs that they'll actually spend their time and money on that will keep them young," he said.







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