From his desk facing a wall of mirrors, Gary Murtagh can see into
a very bright future of soaring demand for his adventure tours for
people aged 50-plus. After all, when the baby boomers retire,
they'll be searching for new ways to fill their days.
The next decade is looking just as promising for Frank Lucchetta,
a vitamin-company executive who also mulls over demographic
predictions. He expects the current focus on healthy living will
boost profits as boomers search out supplements and remedies to
reach the ripest of old age.
And Pat Frewer, a seniors' housing consultant, is counting on
Canadian boomers to live longer than any generation before them,
spurring high demand for low-maintenance, well-staffed places they
can call home.
"I'm in a good market; the interesting thing is the number of
customers is increasing," Mr. Frewer said. "The absolute number of
the elderly continues to grow. The percentage that they represent of
the total population continues to grow, and the length of time that
they will be consumers for the kinds of things that our company
provides is actually increasing."
Baby boomers -- that demographic bulge of Canadians born between
about 1947 and 1966 -- will be big business as they morph into
senior citizens and exercise grey power like no generation before
them. In 2016 alone, the approximately 9.5 million baby boomers will
be over 50, outnumbering all other age groups.
A new report from the Vanier Institute of the Family provides a
revealing look into the lives of Canadian families and, in the case
of baby boomers, into the future. As has been the case since their
births, the boomers will have significant implications for society,
from the economy to real estate.
Consider the numbers: In 2016, the number of households where the
main breadwinner is aged 55 to 64 is projected to be 51 per cent
higher than 2003 levels -- and those over age 65 will spike by 41
per cent. Households in which the main earner is aged 35 to 44 are
expected to drop by 7 per cent.
As people age, their needs and spending patterns change. Unless
immigration levels spike, economists and demographers predict the
glut of retirees will result in a shortage of workers. Crime rates
will likely plunge.
Interest rates, the report forecasts, will remain low as the
middle-aged and seniors finish paying off their mortgages. Demand
for monster houses is expected to drop, while that for easily
accessible condominiums and one-storey homes will climb.
The Vanier report projects a 38-per-cent increase in demand for
annuity contracts and transfers to registered retirement income
funds as it comes time for seniors to drain their RRSPs. There will
also likely be a spike, of about 33 per cent, in gifts of money.
"It'll be just wonderful for charities," notes Roger Sauvé, a
consultant on the Vanier report.
As aging bodies begin to ache and deteriorate, spending on
prescription drugs is expected to swell by 26 per cent. More money
will also be spent on things like vacation homes, snow removal and
cleaning services.
And as consumer demand rises in some sectors, it will slump in
others. The report projects drops in spending on boats, motorcycles,
tent trailers, truck rentals, child care and children's lunches.
Indeed, anything that targets seniors, or seniors-to-be, is the
growth market of the future.
In 1992, when Mr. Murtagh started Eldertreks, a Toronto travel
company catering to the 50-plus demographic, he sent about 50 people
on trips to seven countries. The firm now takes about 2,000
travellers to 80 countries, from Tanzania to Croatia to Iceland, on
every continent.
Mr. Frewer, president of Seniorhome, a Ladner, B.C., consulting
company that works with developers, is working to answer increased
demand with more and better housing supplies.
He sees a future where boomers, who will be more affluent than
their parents, will use their money to demand comfortable
accommodation -- even "wellness centres" with spas and private
health services.
"I think I'll find a boomer market that is open to a wider array
of services and programs that they'll actually spend their time and
money on that will keep them young," he said.